The view at Westminster is switching: a general election in the spring is now regarded as plausible, even likely, by senior figures across the political spectrum. Until recently an October 2024 election was thought the safest bet. But last week Keir Starmer warned the shadow cabinet of the likelihood of an early summer poll and told them to prepare for one. My conversations with senior Conservatives confirm that it’s a sensible precaution. At first sight, with the Tories still 20 points behind Labour in the polls, this might seem self-destructive. Rishi Sunak, who hasn’t in any way abandoned hope of winning, has based his entire strategy on delivery. From the Windsor Framework on Northern Ireland to public sector pay settlements with teachers ...

When the Prime Minister announced a ban on American XL Bully dogs last week, it appeared to be an immediate reaction to the death of a man in Staffordshire who was savaged by two of the dogs. But it was also the result of a broader campaign, which reveals something interesting about how policy is made in the UK. The Staffordshire incident was by no means the first XL Bully attack. Since 2017 the breed has been responsible for at least 14 other deaths and many other injuries. In the last few months, however, the risk posed by the dogs has leapt up the political agenda, largely through prominent policy wonks raising the issue on Twitter. It’s an example of the ...

After the revolution comes the restoration. First Boris Johnson’s complacent boosterism crashed and burned amid chaos and contradiction. Then Liz Truss’s libertarian rocket imploded upon contact with reality. One year on, a new consensus has restored the old orthodoxy, which had ruled for two decades prior to Brexit – Westminster’s managerial technocracy at the service of the City of London.  Both Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer propose variations on technocratic pragmatism that amount to little more than managing decline. Neither have so far offered a bold political vision or a transformative policy programme that might manage national renewal. Competence and caution override other factors - and undermine political courage and imagination.  But technocrats are not alone in being bereft of ideas: populists ...

Keir Starmer has broken his silence on Brexit and pledged a better trading deal with the EU should Labour win the next general election. Boris Johnson's agreement with the bloc, the implementation of which is due to be reviewed in 2025, was “too thin” and could be moulded into a “much better” deal, the opposition leader has told the Financial Times. Starmer has previously ruled out the UK rejoining the single market or customs union, and that position remains unchanged, but he has hinted at a closer trading relationship and emphasised the need to repair Britain’s relationship with Europe for the sake of younger generations. There is speculation that Labour would take steps such as loosening visa rules for young people, align ...

The big delusion of the UK political establishment before Brexit was that a relationship based on multiple opt-outs was sustainable. As a semi-detached member, Britain never took ownership of European integration. The Remain campaign never knew how to sell membership. Keir Starmer's attempt to rewrite the UK-EU relationship is based on a delusion of a similar kind: that it is possible to stay outside the single market and the customs union, and get a better deal. This is a political lie. It will almost certainly be exposed as such. Based on the current polls, Labour has to be regarded as the odds-on favourite to win the next election. Rishi Sunak was a predictably appalling choice for the job of prime minister. ...

Keir Starmer took a rare political risk this week when laying out Labour's plan to deal with immigration. The opposition leader would try to secure a returns deal with the EU if he got in power. That would involve brokering an agreement with the bloc for the UK to take a quota of asylum seekers in exchange for returning those who make the dangerous journey across the Channel in small boats. At the same time, Labour would recruit more asylum caseworkers to clear the backlog and reduce the number of migrants put up in hotels. Separately, the former director of public prosecutions, who visited The Hague this week to meet with Europol officials, has suggested people-smuggling gangs should legally be placed "in the same ...

Most of the time, we’re happy to fund public services we’ll never use – NHS treatments we’ll never need, prisons we’ll never be incarcerated in – because we’re paying for a functioning state. Sometimes, however, it just looks unfair. The “triple lock”, for example, has since 2010 given the state pension a pay rise each year that matches earnings or inflation, whichever is higher, or by a decent 2.5 per cent. Say you get a year of high inflation, when prices rise by more than 10 per cent, then a year in which wages catch up (this should be sounding familiar?): the state pension takes in both rises, while workers’ real incomes have barely moved. Then imagine this period is followed by a recession: the ...

Keir Starmer is at Europol in The Hague today to launch his plan to stop the boats. It has quickly become a debate about the EU. Plus ça change. Labour’s migrant policy is being fought over in the national press. In a piece for the Sun and in an interview with the Times, Starmer has said Labour would target the criminal gangs behind people-smuggling and seek an EU-wide returns agreement for asylum seekers. Meanwhile, the Telegraph and the Mail have pilloried the Labour leader for agreeing to take a quota of undocumented migrants from the EU. The key question is whether Starmer, unlike the current government, which is also very keen to resolve the issue in case you hadn’t noticed, can ...