New research from economists at the Bank of England suggests the housing market, which is already in decline, is approaching a tipping point that could precipitate a real crash. This week’s forecast from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) contained a stern prediction for the housing market: “From their high in the fourth quarter of 2022 to their low in the final quarter of 2024, nominal house prices are expected to decline by 7.6 per cent.” This is the nominal figure, so the real fall in prices – as measured against everything else in the economy – will be significantly higher, especially now that the OBR expects inflation to remain higher for longer. Last month, analysis by Savills estate agents found ...

Net migration hit a record 745,000 last year, the Office for National Statistics revealed today. Not only was this an all-time high, it was also much higher than the original figure calculated by experts in May of 606,000. Net migration hasn’t fallen back significantly since then, with the latest immigration figures putting it at 672,000 in the year to June. There are a number of ironies in these figures. First, these new arrivals are entering under a government that has staked much of its reputation on hostility towards migration. Until recently, we had a home secretary, Suella Braverman (tolerated and often defended by Rishi Sunak), who warned of a “hurricane” of migrants, aimed to reduce numbers below 100,000 (a David Cameron-era pledge) ...

He made quite good jokes. He was calmly authoritative and spoke of “compassionate conservatism” as he focused on poorer workers, and pointedly backed established institutions such as the Bank of England: this week, Jeremy Hunt seemed at times less like yet another Tory chancellor, than a prime minister the modern party has repeatedly refused to allow itself to be led by. The Autumn Statement headlines were well chosen for a struggling party which must face an election next year; the 2p cut in National Insurance which will particularly benefit the self-employed and poorer workers; the 8.5 per cent rise in the state pension; the uprating of benefits in line with with inflation; the unfreezing of local housing allowance. On the overall ...

Myth one: the government has cut workers’ taxes In his Autumn Statement, Jeremy Hunt announced a two percentage point cut in the main rate of National Insurance (NI), claiming that it would save the average nurse £520 per year. “Conservatives cut taxes when we responsibly can,” he said. But the taxes paid by workers are not being reduced by this government. The fiscal outlook released today by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) to accompany Hunt’s statement shows the government’s receipts from income tax rising by £26.3bn by the end of its forecast, and that the UK’s tax-to-GDP ratio would rise by 4.5 per cent after the same period. This will take the “tax burden” (the amount of tax levied relative to ...

“I come today with good news,” Jeremy Hunt declared at the beginning of his Autumn Statement from the despatch box. It was his wife’s birthday, he explained. A strange introduction to a fiscal event that would reveal the sclerosis at the heart of the British economy. But then again, Hunt did not intend to talk about any of that. Things are going great, he said. Like a faux messiah, his gospel did not accord with reality. Hunt was despatched a year ago to stave off financial crisis after Liz Truss’s mini-Budget. Now he was back to mark his own homework. His mantra was that the hard work of inflation reduction had been done and he could now dish out some of ...

Forty-six days into the Gaza war, Israel and Hamas have agreed to an exchange of hostages held in the Strip since 7 October with Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails. The deal includes a ceasefire of at least four days – but no guarantee of an end to the war. Late on Tuesday night, 21 November, the Israeli cabinet voted in favour of a deal that will bring at least 50 hostages, women and children, back home. The release will occur over four days, when there will be a pause in fighting. For every additional ten hostages released, the pause will be extended by one day. The deal rests on the ceasefire not being violated and depends on Hamas locating the abductees. Hamas says it ...

Scotland has its own immigration debate. It doesn’t want fewer migrants, it wants more. The challenge is how to get them. There are three barriers. The first is that Holyrood lacks any control over immigration, which is reserved to Westminster. As it stands, the number and type of people allowed into the United Kingdom is decided in London, and the Scottish government has no input into this decision other than in an advisory capacity. The second issue is that not enough migrants want to come. As the former Labour minister Brian Wilson pointed out this week, where Ireland has one in five born outside the country, Scotland only has one in 14. Most arriving on these shores still head for the south, where ...

The first thing to say about the newly ennobled Foreign Secretary David Cameron is he is not in any way popular. In 2018, when the recovering prime minister first told “friends” he’d be interested in the role, YouGov found that a majority of the public opposed the idea, and less than a quarter were in favour. Given that Cameron’s role in the Brexit referendum had been perfectly pitched to alienate both sides in the febrile political atmosphere of that year, I’m surprised support was that high. That was five years ago, of course, but the same pollster’s tracking of assorted politicians’ reputations shows that things have not improved since. Cameron has lower net popularity than every living ex-prime minister except Liz ...