Palladium jumps 3.1 per cent on heavy volume as copper holds near record high

Palladium futures surged 3.1 per cent to USD 1,321 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange on Thursday, the session's largest move across the metals complex, on volume running 11.4 times the 20-day average. Copper held most of this week's gains, closing at USD 6.549 a pound on COMEX, up 1.3 per cent on the day and 3.8 per cent below the 52-week high of USD 6.8055 reached earlier in the week. The US dollar index was effectively flat at 99.096, leaving currency effects neutral for European buyers.

• Palladium: USD 1,321/oz, +3.10% day, volume 11.37x 20-day average, 39.1% below 52-week high
• Copper: USD 6.549/lb, +1.27% day, volume 16.87x 20-day average, 3.8% below 52-week high
• Aurubis: EUR 173.3, +1.35% day, 23.0% below 52-week high
• Acerinox: EUR 54.18, -1.63% day, 21.8% below 52-week high
• Eramet: EUR 45.22, -1.01% day, 48.7% below 52-week high
• ArcelorMittal: EUR 64.36, -0.49% day, 6.1% below 52-week high

Palladium outperforms on supply focus

Session movers, metals, 2026-09-11 (close, percentage change, volume against the 20-day average)

Instrument	Close	Day	5-day	Volume vs avg
Palladium USD	1,321	+3.10%	-7.36%	11.37x
Aurubis EUR	173.3	+1.35%	-0.40%	0.77x
Copper USD	6.55	+1.27%	-0.43%	16.87x
ArcelorMittal EUR	64.36	-0.49%	-1.98%	0.89x
Eramet EUR	45.22	-1.01%	+0.80%	0.78x
Acerinox EUR	54.18	-1.63%	-5.45%	1.06x
Source: exchange closing data via Yahoo Finance, session of 2026-09-11.

The palladium move coincided with a progress update from Greenland Mines on its 2026 field programmes at the Skaergaard and Sarfartoq projects. The company reported drilling and sampling activity at both Greenland licences, which host palladium-platinum-nickel-copper mineralisation. No resource update or economic assessment was released. The futures contract traded 11.37 times its 20-day average volume, suggesting the session attracted participants beyond the usual hedging flow.

Even after Thursday's rise, palladium remains 39.1 per cent below its 52-week high of USD 2,169.9, reached in the first quarter of 2025. The metal has declined 7.4 per cent over the past five sessions and 3.6 per cent over the past month. For European autocatalyst manufacturers, the metal is still trading well below the levels that squeezed margins through 2023 and early 2024, though the sharp single-session rebound on heavy volume may prompt some fabricators to re-evaluate forward cover.

Copper consolidates after record approach

Copper's 1.3 per cent gain took the December contract to USD 6.549 a pound, leaving it 3.8 per cent below the 52-week high of USD 6.8055 printed earlier this week. Volume ran at 16.87 times the 20-day average, the highest multiple in the dataset, indicating broad participation as the market digested the first annual supply decline since 2017, according to a Frank Talk research note circulated during the session.

Multiple headlines accompanied the move. Aruma Resources outlined growth targets across its copper portfolio. Cuprum Metals won the Scale-Up Grand Prix at the 2026 World Materials Forum. Canadian copper equities were reported to be falling despite the metal's strength, a divergence that often signals equity investors are discounting jurisdictional risk or cost inflation rather than the commodity price itself. For European wire rod producers, cable manufacturers and the grid investment pipeline, copper at USD 6.55/lb translates to an input cost that has more than doubled from the 2020 lows, even if it has retreated from this week's peak.

European smelters and miners diverge

Aurubis, Europe's largest copper smelter, rose 1.35 per cent to EUR 173.3 on Xetra, tracking the copper advance. The stock trades 23.0 per cent below its 52-week high of EUR 225.2. Volume was light at 0.77 times the 20-day average. As a custom smelter, Aurubis earns treatment and refining charges that tend to widen when concentrate markets loosen; the reported supply decline could tighten concentrate availability and pressure TC/RCs, a dynamic not captured by the copper price alone.

Eramet fell 1.01 per cent to EUR 45.22 in Paris after PT Weda Bay Nickel, in which Eramet holds a significant interest, announced the restart of mining operations at its Indonesian nickel project. The restart adds supply to a nickel market that has struggled with oversupply through 2025. Eramet shares now sit 48.7 per cent below their 52-week high of EUR 88.2, reflecting the nickel price collapse and the group's exposure to manganese ore markets that have also weakened. Volume was 0.78 times average.

Steelmakers under pressure despite flat iron ore

Acerinox led the decliners, dropping 1.63 per cent to EUR 54.18 in Madrid. The stainless steel producer has fallen 5.5 per cent over five days and 5.4 per cent over the month. No company-specific announcement accompanied the move. Acerinox's margins are squeezed between nickel alloy surcharges, which have softened with the nickel price, and European demand from automotive and white goods that remains subdued. The stock is 21.8 per cent below its 52-week high of EUR 69.3.

ArcelorMittal slipped 0.49 per cent to EUR 64.36 in Amsterdam. The world's largest steelmaker outside China has gained 69 per cent year-to-date according to a Zacks industry outlook note, but the shares have given back 2.0 per cent over the past five sessions. The company trades just 6.1 per cent below its 52-week high of EUR 68.56, making it the closest to peak levels among the European producers tracked. A separate Vail Resorts board refreshment announcement appeared in the feed alongside ArcelorMittal, an unrelated inclusion. European flat steel prices have been supported by safeguard quota limits and rising scrap costs, but automotive order books are softening heading into the fourth quarter.

Industrial cost transmission

For European industry, the session's moves create a split picture. Copper-intensive sectors, power grid contractors, EV charging infrastructure, heat pump manufacturers, face input costs within 4 per cent of the all-time high, with the supply decline narrative suggesting limited near-term relief. Palladium users in autocatalysis see a metal still 39 per cent off its peak, but Thursday's violent rebound on heavy volume may signal the end of the downtrend that has benefited catalyst fabricators for 18 months.

Stainless steel buyers gain from Acerinox's share price weakness only indirectly; the mill's pricing power depends on nickel surcharge mechanics and import competition from Indonesia and China, not the equity valuation. Eramet's nickel restart adds incremental tonnes to a market where LME stocks have been building, potentially easing alloy surcharges for European stainless mills in the fourth quarter.

Next data points

The US CPI release on 15 September and the Federal Reserve meeting on 16-17 September will frame dollar direction, which remains the primary external driver for dollar-denominated metals. On the physical side, the London Metal Exchange warehouse reports for copper and nickel on 14 September will show whether the supply decline narrative is reflected in visible stocks. Aurubis reports third-quarter results on 14 November, when treatment charge guidance for 2027 contracts will be the key metric for smelter margins.