Corn jumps 5.4% as coffee slides 12% in mixed energy and commodities session

Corn futures led gains in Monday's energy and commodities session, rising 5.4% to close at USX 518.25, while coffee prices plummeted 12.4% and gasoline futures dropped 9.8%. The moves, which come as the euro held steady against the dollar, will directly impact European food manufacturers, transport firms, and retailers, with input cost pressures shifting across sectors.

• Corn (ZC=F) closed at USX 518.25, up 5.4% on the day and 14.7% over the past month.
• Coffee (KC=F) fell 12.4% to USX 330.8, reversing recent gains to trade 24.5% below its 52-week high.
• Gasoline (RB=F) dropped 9.8% to USD 2.9488 per gallon, extending a 10.7% decline over five days.
• Brent crude (BZ=F) closed at USD 88.08, down 4.4% on the day and 0.3% lower over a month.
• The euro (EURUSD=X) closed at USD 1.1675, down 0.05% on the day but up 2.5% over a month.

Corn surges amid El Niño concerns, lifting agricultural futures

Session movers, energy and commodities, 2026-08-25 (close, percentage change, volume against the 20-day average)

Instrument	Close	Day	5-day	Volume vs avg
Corn USX	518.25	+5.44%	+11.87%	0.91x
Wheat USX	698.5	+2.46%	+5.12%	0.51x
RWE EUR	58.2	+1.54%	-1.49%	0.2x
Brent crude USD	88.08	-4.44%	-3.23%	0.74x
Gasoline USD	2.95	-9.84%	-10.69%	0.52x
Coffee USX	330.8	-12.43%	-8.97%	0.85x
Source: exchange closing data via Yahoo Finance, session of 2026-08-25.

Corn futures rose 5.4% on Monday, building on an 11.9% gain over five days to trade just 0.5% below their 52-week high of USX 520.75. The rally, which follows Citi's recent upgrade of corn, soybean, and wheat price targets citing intensifying El Niño risks, will add to input costs for European livestock producers and food manufacturers. Corn is a key feedstock for poultry, pork, and dairy farms, and a component in processed foods from cereals to snacks. With the euro trading 0.05% lower against the dollar on the day, European buyers will see the dollar-denominated price increase amplified slightly, though the currency's 2.5% rise over a month partially offsets longer-term gains.

Wheat futures also advanced, climbing 2.5% to USX 698.5, up 5.1% over five days and 5.8% over a month. The contract remains 1.8% below its 52-week high of USX 711.25. Reports of mixed midday trading gave way to a late rally, with Citi's price target upgrade providing additional support. For European millers and bakeries, higher wheat prices could pressure margins, though current levels remain well above the 52-week low of USX 492.25, set earlier in the year.

Coffee tumbles 12% as gasoline and Brent crude slide

Coffee futures led declines, dropping 12.4% to USX 330.8, a sharp reversal from recent gains that had left the contract up 1.9% over a month. The slide came despite reports of a slow Brazilian harvest and tight inventories, which had previously boosted prices. For European coffee roasters and retailers, the drop could ease margin pressures after months of rising input costs. Coffee prices remain 24.5% below their 52-week high of USX 437.95, set earlier in the year, but are still above the 52-week low of USX 242.7. Traders noted no specific announcement driving the decline, leaving the session's move as a correction in an otherwise volatile market.

Gasoline futures fell 9.8% to USD 2.9488 per gallon, extending a 10.7% drop over five days. The contract is now 22.9% below its 52-week high of USD 3.8232. The decline will benefit European transport and logistics firms, which have faced rising fuel costs in recent months. With gasoline prices denominated in dollars, the euro's 2.5% rise over a month further reduces the effective cost for European buyers. Brent crude also slid 4.4% to USD 88.08 per barrel, down 3.2% over five days but nearly flat over a month. The drop follows reports of oil supplies moving through the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping lane, though no specific catalyst was linked to Monday's trading.

European energy majors mixed; RWE edges higher

Of the 20 energy and commodities companies trading on Monday, seven rose and 13 fell. RWE, the German utility, was among the top risers, climbing 1.5% to EUR 58.2. The gain came despite a 1.5% drop over five days and a 1.0% decline over a month. RWE's stock remains 6.1% below its 52-week high of EUR 62, set earlier in the year, but is well above the 52-week low of EUR 33.72. No specific announcement accompanied the rise, with trading volume at 0.2 times the 20-day average, indicating limited market participation.

Other European energy majors were not among the top movers, with the session's focus remaining on agricultural and refined product futures. The mixed performance reflects ongoing uncertainty in energy markets, where falling crude and gasoline prices contrast with sustained demand for power generation and industrial use.

What the moves mean for European business margins

For European businesses, Monday's session delivers mixed signals on input costs. Food manufacturers face higher corn and wheat prices, which could lead to increased prices for consumer goods or squeezed margins if passed on to shoppers. Livestock producers, in particular, will feel the impact of rising corn costs, as feed represents a significant portion of their expenses. Conversely, coffee roasters and retailers stand to benefit from lower coffee prices, potentially boosting margins or allowing for price cuts to stimulate demand.

Transport and logistics firms are set to gain from falling gasoline prices, which reduce fuel costs, a key expense for trucking, shipping, and delivery companies. With gasoline down nearly 10% in a single day, these businesses could see immediate relief, though the sustainability of the decline remains unclear. For energy-intensive industries such as chemicals and steel, lower Brent crude prices may also ease pressure on raw material costs, though the 4.4% drop is modest compared to recent volatility.

The euro's stability against the dollar, trading at USD 1.1675, down 0.05% on the day but up 2.5% over a month, adds another layer of complexity. European buyers of dollar-denominated commodities see their purchasing power enhanced by the euro's recent gains, partially offsetting price increases in corn and wheat. For sellers of European goods, a stronger euro affects export pricing, though this effect is less direct in the commodities space.

Monday's trading session, dated 2026-08-25, leaves market participants watching for further developments in El Niño patterns, which could drive agricultural prices higher, and updates on global oil supply routes, which may influence gasoline and Brent crude levels in the coming days.